Last week Ohio’s Gov John Kasich announced his decision to throw his hat into the race for president. This announcement has Conservative voters across Ohio jumping for joy.   REALLY ?????

It’s not what you think.  🙂

Toledo Tea Party Chairman, John Mc Avoy:

“I normally don’t put a lot of value in polling numbers and survey analysis. More often than not,  these polls are conducted by the various media and news outlets for entertainment value to satisfy the needs of their audience. But there’s something different happening in this election. We see a unique metric in the numbers that’s never existed in an Ohio election.

McAvoy continues::

“Gov Jeb Bush was running high in Ohio and national polls, when Gov John Kasich threw his hat in the ring, a lot of Ohio’s hard core Bush supporters shifted their support.  That change in vote tipped the scale and significantly  increases the chances of one of the conservative candidates pulling off a landslide victory in the March primary.”

How is this possible?  Read on.

In years past,  establishment candidates loved it when the ballot was filled with several conservative opposing candidates as this greatly improved his chances of winning. Its a know factor, conservatives candidates dilute and split the opposition vote. There’s even been accusations about establishment candidates and their party recruiting and assisting opposing candidates, just so they would split the opposition vote.

However, the 2016 Primary is unique in that it actually is causing the establishment candidates to “split of the vote”.

Two factors that will determine the winner of Ohio’s Primary race:

1) Govs Kasich’s entry into the race will split the establishment vote.  We’re starting to see this to happen in the polling data.

2) There is an active movement rising up in Ohio (and across the US) by conservative groups and organizations to unite behind one single conservative candidate for the March primary.

The group spearheading this movement is called “Ohio Conservatives United” and is catching on across Ohio, and literally, across the nation.UCRU_LOGO_1

Lets do the math to see how this works:

We used 6 of the national polling numbers from Real Clear Politics to do this math.  We intentionally discarded the “Trump Card” (pun intended) for this comparison.

FACTOR #1 – Kasich entering the race splits the liberal / moderate vote.

On the Liberal / Moderate side of the race we’ve  put three candidates who are doing very poorly in the Ohio Conservatives United surveys.

14%  Jeb Bush
3%  Cris Christie
2%  John Kasich
19%  TOTAL

In Ohio specific polling,  its clear that John Kasich enjoys a “home state” advantage.  The “total votes” (19%) is almost identical, but Kasich siphons off about 1/2 of the votes that would normally go to Bush.  Even though Kasich’s polling numbers improved,  he dragged down the front runner Bush.  Bush and Kasich are tied, each sees about about 8% the vote in the March Primary.
FACTOR #2 – Ohio Conservative voters uniting behind one candidate.

These candidates names are taken from the top contenders on the Ohio Conservatives United web site.  To make an apples to apples comparison, we’ve again used the polling numbers from Real Clear Politics:

12% Walker
7% Rubio
6%  Carson
5%  Paul
4%  Cruz
1%  Fiorina
1%  Santorum
1%  Jindal
37%  TOTAL

37% of the vote will be split amongst these 8 candidates.

Any one of the above 8 candidates would be acceptable to the vast majority of Ohio’s conservatives voters.  And, they know full well if they go into the primaries without uniting,  the numbers posted above will be what they get, and they will loose.

What is unique about “Elections 2016”,  Ohio’s Conservative voters are uniting. They have created a grassroots effort in Ohio to reach the conservative voters and get them to engage in discussions about uniting behind one candidate. Even if 50% of the Ohio conservative voters decide to unite behind any one of the candidates.

If we plug those numbers into the national poll,  the Conservative candidate should receive about 17% of the vote, vs John Kasich’s 8%.

Ohio’s grass-root effort, Ohio Conservatives United, is catching on nation wide.  An identical group in Florida just started up, Florida Conservatives United, and other states are looking closely at how they can get their conservative voters to engage in a similar program. This uniting effort is catching on across the entire United States

Thank you Gov Kasich for entering this race.